铜价已飙升至两年来的新高，全球最大的上市铜生产商表示，本轮反弹可能刚刚开始。自由港麦克莫兰公司(freeport - mcmoran Inc.)CEO理查德·阿德克森(Richard Adkerson)预计，铜目标价4美元。

以下方面显示了为什么铜前景会被人看好。

1．供应偏紧

据称，中国最大的铜消费国——中国正计划禁止进口一些用于提炼废五金的机械废料，这将进一步加剧该国铜供应的紧张。

最大的铜消费国——中国，据称正计划禁止进口一些用于提炼废五金的机械废料，这将进一步紧缩该国的铜供给。根据世界金属统计局(world Bureau of metal Statistics)的数据，在这个时候，世界生产的精炼铜产量已连续三个月落后于消耗量。今年早些时候，必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)在智利的迪达铜矿（Escondida）发生了为期六周的罢工，再加上自由港旗下印尼格拉斯伯格矿(Grasberg mine)被暂时禁止出货，这一系列因素导致了全球铜产量下降。

2.投资减少

自从经历了三年价格暴跌，在2015年许多没有利润的业务被迫关闭之后，尽管铜价上涨，但包括自由港在内的生产商仍不愿在新矿方面增加投入。“你不会看到人们在新项目上投资，新项目也非常稀缺，” Adkerson在上周二召开的财报电话会议上对分析师表示。据彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)的数据，今年的资本投资规模萎缩至2007年以来的最低水平。

3. 中国需求增长

经济学家调高了对中国经济增长的预测，这表明从电网到手机等各个领域的管道和电线对铜的需求变得更为强劲。今年第二季度，因为工业产出和零售销售在6月份大幅增长，中国GDP增速超过了预期水平。花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)驻纽约的大宗商品研究主管艾德?莫尔斯(Ed Morse)在接受彭博(Bloomberg)社的电视采访时表示，他对未来金属的短缺预期“很大程度上是基于中国经济增长的基础更加坚实。尽管可能是由于受到了政治上的诱导，但中国经济爆炸性的迅猛增长，真的有望持续几个月。”

4.技术指标

尽管这些图表是被分析师用来预测价格的，但也透露了金属涨势的信号。铜价在上周三上涨至2015年5月以来的最高水平2.9055美元/磅，这使得该金属价格连续在第二个交易日高于其布林（Bollinger）通道的上沿。这可能会刺激更多的算法交易员进行购买。上周，对冲基金纷纷涌入，将LME铜的净多头寸推高至20周以来的最高水平。

(上海有色网 闫雪松 译自彭博社)

原文如下：

Four Charts Supporting Freeport CEO’s Bullish Case for Copper

By Luzi Ann Javier

(Bloomberg) -- Copper has surged to a two-year high, and the world’s biggest publicly traded producer of the metal says the rally may just be getting started. Prices jumped as much as 2.1 percent on Wednesday to $2.9055 a pound. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Chief Executive Officer Richard Adkerson said $4 copper is “in the cards.” These charts show why the outlook may be turning more bullish for the metal.

1. Supply Troubles

China, the top copper consumer, is said to be planning a ban on some imports of machinery waste used to extract metal scrap, which would further tighten the nation’s domestic supply. It comes at a time when world production of the refined metal has trailed consumption for three straight months, according to World Bureau of Metal Statistics data. The deficits arose after a six-week strike at BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Escondida mine in Chile earlier this year and a temporary ban on shipments from Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which curbed global output.

2. Dwindling Spending

Despite the rally in copper, producers including Freeport are still reluctant to boost spending on new mines after a three-year slump in prices through 2015 forced many to shut unprofitable operations. “You don’t see people jumping up to invest in new projects, and new projects are very scarce,” Adkerson said in an earnings call with analysts Tuesday. Capital spending is seen shrinking this year to the smallest since 2007, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

3. China’s Demand

Economists have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth, signaling stronger demand for the metal used in pipes and electrical wiring that goes into everything from power grids to cell phones. In the second quarter, the nation posted better- than-expected growth as industrial output and retail sales jumped in June. The deficit outlook for the metal is “sparked largely by the more solid base of growth in China,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It looks like the growth spurt in China, however politically induced it might be, is really going to sustain the rally for a couple more months.”

4. Technical Indicators

Even charts used by analysts to predict prices signal the metal could extend gains. Copper’s ascent to $2.9055 on Wednesday, the highest since May 2015, sent the metal well above the upper limit of its Bollinger band for a second straight day. That may spur more buying from algorithmic traders. Last week, hedge funds piled in, boosting their net-bullish copper bets on the London Metal Exchange to the highest in 20 weeks.